Our operating environment
The AFP continuously monitors and assesses our operating environment to ensure we can deliver on our purpose. The various geopolitical, social, economic and technological changes in our environment can affect the AFP directly and indirectly, and also shape the criminal environment as explored in the AFP Federal Crime Threat Picture. Despite these changes, the AFP strives to evolve with our operating environment to ensure we continue to keep Australians and Australia safe.
Geopolitical change
Geopolitical changes will continue to drive our domestic and international policing and national security environments. Australia continues to play a significant role in supporting the peaceful stability of the region, and there remains strong demand for the AFP to support the advancement of policing and law enforcement outcomes across the Pacific. Conflicts further afield, however, can create reverberating national security challenges and tensions between sections of the Australian community, potentially impacting upon social cohesion.
Global conflict and competition are also complicating supply chains for criminal activity and policing responses. Although this can increase the cost and resourcing impact of policing operations, the cost of inaction through the increased risk of international criminal threats operating in or impacting Australia, remains greater. These conflicts are also expected to impact our international partnerships, as working in some regions may become increasingly difficult, international government priorities may change and perceptions of policing may become polarised.
The AFP is cognisant that climate change has the potential to compound various safety and security risks, through heightened resource scarcity, organised crime, infrastructure challenges, migration and displacement. Increased awareness and preparedness efforts will be needed to ensure policing, and all critical services, can manage any potential long-term effects of climate change.
Despite these anticipated challenges, the AFP’s international presence continues to be of high importance, maximising our impact through use of capabilities and resources. This is particularly important as a majority of crime and criminal influences are offshore. It is critical for us to disrupt these threats before they reach Australian shores and impact our communities. Our offshore partnerships are expected to increase, particularly within the Pacific region, and enhance our ability to prevent, deter and disrupt criminal and national security threats. Pacific and Southeast Asian nations will continue to be some of our most essential partners, given their close geographic proximity to Australia and attractiveness as a target for geopolitical actors and organised crime.
Social changes
One of the biggest social changes affecting the AFP is changing workforce needs. We anticipate ongoing challenges regarding the expanding skills and experiences needed for modern policing, increasing representation, competition in key employment markets, and the need to balance an increasingly multigenerational workplace.
Changing societal views on youth offending are contributing to debates about the age of criminal responsibility across Australia. Further, shifting attitudes towards illicit drugs are manifesting in legislative changes, such as the ACT’s Drugs of Dependence Act 1989, at a time when drug consumption across Australia remains high. We will continue to work with the community while responding to the complexities of modern-day policing by adapting our operating model and investigative processes where required.
Trust and confidence in policing and other institutions continues to be a key factor in shaping relationships with the community, particularly as a result of the challenges to social attitudes towards government and policing, which arose both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Australians remain highly engaged in our political system and it is important to the health of Australian democracy that interactions between politicians and the public remain safe.
Moreover, high levels of public trust and confidence are of strategic importance to the AFP. High levels of trust are associated with increased crime reporting, stronger provision of information and intelligence, and greater community support for the legislative reforms police need to adapt to a changing environment. The AFP’s Community Confidence Survey indicates strong level of confidence in the AFP,1 and the National Survey of Community Satisfaction with Policing highlights that ACT residents report relatively high perceptions of safety at home and in public places.2
Economic conditions
Economic conditions, both in Australia and internationally, continue to be affected by ongoing geopolitical and social shocks. Macro-economic factors have a downstream effect on communities, including the cost of living increasing compared to previous years. Although Australia remains a relatively wealthy country by international standards, the increasing cost of household goods, energy, housing and other necessary living expenses has widespread impacts on Australians. As these costs increase, it is likely that opportunistic actors may capitalise on vulnerable Australians through scams and other fraudulent schemes. The AFP recognises that law enforcement is just one aspect of the response to cybercrime, and we will continue to invest in public awareness and education programs to encourage cyber safety.
The AFP maintains a strong focus on working within its operating budget, while managing evolving criminal threats. Through investments in the AFP, the government has boosted our workforce and our ability to achieve additional objectives. However, the AFP faces a range of external operating pressures and increased operating costs and we must continue to seek efficiencies to meet government expectations.
Technological change
Technology is expected to continue to advance at a rapid rate, shaping both the criminal threat environment and our policing capabilities. All crime types and policing functions are impacted by the use of technology, including how emerging technology such as AI, biomedical capabilities, robotics and machine learning will accelerate this impact.
Technology is a key enabler for criminal activity against Australians, including by cyber-criminals. The online grooming and abuse of children, and easily accessible exposure to abhorrent and violent extremist material is continuing to grow. Australia is also facing increasing, persistent and pervasive cybercrime threats targeting critical infrastructure, government, industry and the community. The AFP will continue to prevent, deter and respond to these threats using both traditional and innovative policing methods.
The AFP’s Blue paper to 2030 and beyond details the future of federal policing in leading, embracing and leveraging technology. We recognise the significance of Digital Evolution 4.0, including the influential role of AI as a major driver of transformative changes affecting the Australian community, and in turn policing. The AFP acknowledges that we must hold ourselves to a high standard as the technology landscape changes, and we will ensure accountability, transparency and responsibility when adopting any new technology.
