Our operating environment
The AFP continuously monitors and assesses our operating environment to ensure we can deliver on our purpose. The various geopolitical, social, economic and technological changes and conditions can affect the AFP directly and indirectly. These changes also shape the criminal environment as explored in the AFP Federal Crime Threat Picture.
Geopolitical change
International conflict and the increasing globalisation and convergence of crime are becoming more pronounced features of the AFP’s operating environment. Transnational organised crime is continuing to capitalise on instability within and between nations, which is increasing risks related to social cohesion, human trafficking, child exploitation, drug trafficking, cybercrime and terrorism. The AFP faces heightened challenges as new crime threats emerge, diplomatic relationships evolve and law enforcement cooperation in conflict-affected regions becomes more difficult.
The rapidly evolving global political landscape, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, is already impacting the community in Australia in the form of protest activity, political activism and community violence, with conflict overseas fuelling a rise in inflammatory language and increased incidence for violent responses. The impact of conflicts across regions creates uncertainty, and the likely displacement of people may lead to further geopolitical tensions with potential impact on Australia’s national security. These tensions and divisions within the community affect social cohesion and the domestic security environment. This includes the targeting of religious and ethnic groups across the country. The AFP will continue to work with partners such as state and territory law enforcement agencies to provide reassurance to the community and maintain social cohesion, resilience and trust, now and into the future.
The desirability of the Pacific and South-East Asia as a target for transnational organised crime and malicious actors remains a significant threat over the coming 4 years. As a result, the AFP’s new and existing partnerships with key international and regional law enforcement agencies in those regions are pivotal to reducing those threats. The AFP will continue to enhance our capabilities to monitor and disrupt emerging threats before they impact our region, including Australia. The AFP’s security posture also must continue to strengthen in line with the increasing threats that come from the challenging geopolitical environment, both in our region and more broadly.
Social change
Community confidence and trust are essential for effective policing, and this challenge exists in the context of ongoing societal changes. While the AFP Community Confidence Survey continues to show strong levels of trust and confidence in the AFP, these changes are broad, fast-paced and often influenced by similar trends occurring at the global level. Social changes can be driven by changing values or norms, demographic shifts, emerging technologies, escalating fears or anxieties, and changing sensitivities to socio-economic conditions, inequalities or rights.
The drivers can in turn manifest in changing demands and expectations on governments and government agencies, like the AFP. In particular, diverse social changes in areas such as social divisions, mental health and wellbeing, institutional trust, illicit drugs, employer expectations, and many other trends, are all shaping the AFP’s approach to addressing particular challenges relating to crime and to engagement with the community. We are witnessing a growing normalisation of violence, including politically motivated acts, with an increased political polarisation across the Australian community.
The AFP adopts proactive community engagement strategies which foster trust and deeper cooperation between law enforcement and communities, particularly with local leaders, supporting open lines of communication and an active role in crime prevention.
Social changes are also driving changes in the AFP itself. As the needs of the Australian community change, recruitment challenges are anticipated with growing competition for members with diverse skill sets, backgrounds and knowledge. By embracing innovation, developing community partnerships, prioritising the attraction of a skills-based workforce, and fostering supportive work environments, the AFP continues to position itself as the law enforcement employer of choice in a competitive employment market.
Economic conditions
Economic conditions, both in Australia and internationally, continue to be impacted by successive geopolitical and social shocks. The growing disparity in wages, education, jobs and housing is creating generational divisions and social instability. New digital currencies have also created opportunities for criminal activity to be hidden and globalised, and for law enforcement to work with existing and new partners to uncover, seize and disrupt. This environment presents opportunities for adversaries to capitalise on vulnerable Australians and hide criminal assets.
These factors have a downstream effect on communities, including the cost of living. As the costs of everyday necessities increase, it is likely that opportunistic actors may capitalise on vulnerable Australians through scams and other fraudulent schemes.
Working with financial intelligence capabilities and partners, the AFP will continue to target threats to national security, including terrorism financing, entities financing foreign interference, and espionage.
The AFP is not immune from macro-economic factors. Inflationary pressures and the cost of doing business can ultimately serve to increase the cost of protecting Australians and Australia’s interests from serious criminal threats. Although this has placed increasing pressure on the AFP, our commitment to meeting operational budget remains firm. The AFP continues to make strategic operational and investment decisions to achieve organisational efficiencies and places high importance on financial management practices and prioritisation of AFP activities to sustainably remain within our budgetary envelope.
Technological change
Technological advancements are accelerating, creating both opportunities and risks that are transforming industries, law enforcement, national security and society itself. Criminals are quick to leverage the opportunities posed by emerging technologies, prompting new and changing threats to our community, infrastructure, businesses and government, including agencies that safeguard the personal information of Australians. Hacking, ransomware attacks, phishing schemes and financial crimes are expected to become more frequent. The AFP will continue to respond to these threats using both innovative and traditional policing methods, including public awareness and education programs to encourage cyber safety.
Violent extremist material and rhetoric online continues to be a significant threat, with young people more susceptible to developing a fixation on violence and hate. Extremist groups are deliberately targeting young and vulnerable individuals for recruitment and radicalisation, particularly online. The AFP must rapidly adapt and adopt new technologies to tackle this challenge.
Within the AFP, technological advances will also provide opportunities for improved operational effectiveness and efficiencies, as well as enhanced services to victims of crime. The integration of various artificial intelligence technologies offers the AFP the opportunity to process lawfully collected data in ways that are currently beyond human scale to ensure community safety and bolster cybersecurity efforts.
In this technology-driven environment, the AFP is focused on ensuring that the adoption of new technologies aligns with legislative frameworks through a cautious and responsible approach, ensuring the proper and ethical adoption of new technologies.
Figure 3 summarises the key trends shaping the AFP operating environment, in the near term and beyond.
Figure 3 Key trends shaping the AFP’s operating environment
Technological change |
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Near term | - Violent extremist material online
- Increasing cyberthreats
- Artificial intelligence
- Privacy concerns (data privacy)
- Data enrichment / combination
- Legislative regulations and responsible use of technology
- Increasing pace of technological innovation
- End-to-end encryption
- Deepfakes
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Beyond | - Quantum computing
- Robotics
- Immersive environments and augmented reality
- Cyber insecurity and disasters
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Geopolitical change |
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Near term | - International conflict / rising geopolitical tensions
- Displacement of people
- Strengthened relationships in the Pacific
- Transnational crime
- Law enforcement cooperation
- International partnerships
- Terrorism and violent extremism
- Continued increase in foreign interference and espionage
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Beyond | - Shifting international power dynamics
- Increasing influence of the private sector on international affairs
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Social change |
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Near term | - Evolving values
- Unlawful migration
- Social tensions and exclusion / increased hate crime
- Mental health
- Declining institutional trust
- Mis / disinformation
- Aging workforce
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Beyond | - Declining natural population increase and increasing immigration
- Climate change
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Economic conditions |
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Near term | - Cost of living
- Cybercrime inflationary pressures
- Labour market pressures
- Rising economic uncertainty
- Government budgetary efficiency
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Beyond | - Geopolitical shocks
- Social instability
- AI-driven labour market disruptions
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